Personal, Reflections

Aug-Sept-Oct Reflection

It’s been a long time since I’ve been active here. The last few months have been busy with launching Sports Data Direct, starting another blog, and moving yet again.

Sports Data Direct Blog Going Great

Look at these stats.

Sports Data Direct Traffic Stats

In 2 months blogging about daily fantasy sports, I got better results than all my Ergo Sum work. Here’s Ergo Sum’s stats over the same period

Ergo Sum Traffic Stats

True to my word, I haven’t bombarded this personal blog with sports data stuff. But, I’ve been very, very active, starting a weekly recap where I use data mining techniques to reconstruct what professional bettors do.

Take a look at the blog here.

I started the blog a as a way to market Sports Data Direct. Already, I have a bigger email list than Ergo Sum and even a few backers on Patreon. Honestly, I thought my first article sucked but it became the top post on this subreddit, /r/dfsports. Nothing insane, 40 upvotes, but the best I’ve ever done.

Multi-Armed Bandits and What Should I Do Now?

The actual Sports Data Direct data subscription service has been tough. I’ve gotten 2 customers so far…

But I remember when I started Teo’s Tech Shop, business started slow. I launched on January 1st on a personal New Year’s Resolution — new year new me am I right? It took me until mid February to get my first customer. And it wasn’t until late March that I started getting referral customers and a successful business.

So I’m going to keep at it. I need to add play by play data to retain this one customer but besides that I’m working on a few other ventures.

Here they are with money earned since I quit my job last May.

  • Amazon affiliate links 2 books sold $0.80
  • Daily Fantasy Blog $29/month
  • Consulting $2,935
    • In talks with a company for a “huge project” that should pay my monthly bills for about 6 months if I get it
  • Sports Data Direct  $100 (Server costs $60/month..)
    • There’s definitely a market here but do I need to rethink my business model?
    • #1 idea is to change pricing model to be a fixed/season fee
    • Add NBA?
  • Daily Fantasy Betting $40
    • Doing well in recent weeks. Is it a fluke or should I double down?
  • NBA Betting
    • Still building a model with plenty of backtesting
    • How much should I risk and how long till I’m confident in the model?

Looking at this and doing the math, I am definitely not cash-flow positive yet. But I still have enough leash to make it comfortably to May without making another penny.

I’m not sure what you think about all this but I think it’s important to put things into perspective. I quit my job because I wanted to have a closer connection with the bottom line and have “relatable” problems. The freedom was exciting too. So far I’ve had my share of problems but it’s been fun.

My goal is to create a scalable income stream that grows revenue faster than it costs to grow.

Consulting pays well and immediately solves my cashflow problems but do I want to consult all my life? And shitty clients suck.

Betting is pretty independent but it’s tough to know if you’re good or not. There’s always the risk that your edge goes away too.

Sports Data Direct is scalable but I see quality data as a chore. Not as something I want to spend my life preparing.

Random note about how I think about these options: read about the Multi-Armed Bandit — it’s how Google optimizes ads and keywords. Balancing exploitation and exploration.

What I am Doing Next: Not Taking the Quick Buck

As for what I’m doing next, I’m going to put as much effort as possible in my long term plans. My current priorities are

  1. DFS Betting
  2. NBA Betting — correlates highly with skillset I would have a traditional job for
  3. Blogging
  4. Sports Data Direct
  5. Consulting
  6. Learning marketable skills

In the back of my mind I’m trying to remember how long it took me to get to the point I am today. I now have all the data and time to do what I want.

But I still get lured by consulting gigs like website development because the pay is good and I’m good at it. I’ve even considered applying to companies to work as a full stack engineer or something. I need to remind myself that taking a pay cut to be entry level data scientist at a fun company or learning more about robotics/physics will make me happier in the long run.

Upside is far more important at this point in my life than what pays the most now. I’d like to put myself in an upside maximizing Multi-Armed Bandit. Rather than optimize for profit, I need to learn more about myself, what I want, and make choices that make that possible.

So far is all I know is that I hate obligations and have a tendency to pile on so many different things to work on that I become overwhelmed.

July Was One of My Favorite Times

Last July, I felt no pressure of making money and could just work on whatever I wanted freely. Now I feel a bit more pressure. I’d like to get to that point.

Things I want to check out if money wasn’t a thought:

  • Pyro (Python library from Uber Engineering) that makes it easier to generate distributions
    • I did an undergrad thesis a few years back and arrived at this funky equation
    • ReflectanceI want to find out what dynamical systems for an hydrogen electron would give rise to such a funky looking thing.
    • Or, if my thesis turns out to be mostly nonsense, look into more dynamical systems.
  • Desktop browser experience where you can view multiple sites within the same tab
    • Essentially, just fork Chrome and create mobile rendered pages within a single desktop tab.
  • A robot to do all my chores
    • Childhood dream of mine
  • Start making some money again

 

 

2 thoughts on “Aug-Sept-Oct Reflection

  1. As a Teo Tech Client, I KNOW that your perseverance will propel you to a very successful and fulfilling career! Forge Ahead! Best, Kathy Galainena

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